Mean–variance portfolio and contribution selection in stochastic pension funding

In this paper we study the problem of simultaneous minimization of risks, and maximization of the terminal value of expected funds assets in a stochastic defined benefit aggregated pension plan. The risks considered are the solvency risk, measured as the variance of the terminal fund’s level, and the contribution risk, in the form of a running cost associated to deviations from the evolution of the stochastic normal cost. The problem is formulated as a bi-objective stochastic problem of mean–variance and it is solved with dynamic programming techniques. We find the efficient frontier and we show that the optimal portfolio depends linearly on the supplementary cost of the fund, plus an additional term due to the random evolution of benefits.     

无穷方差厚尾过程变点的小波估计

研究随机设计下噪声为厚尾随机变量时非参数函数中的变点估计问题.首先,通过设计变换将随机设计转化为等间距固定设计,进而利用小波方法估计变换后的变点的位置,再利用逆设计变换求得随机设计下变点位置的估计,并给出估计的收敛速度.模拟研究结果说明对于无穷方差厚尾过程中的变点估计问题小波方法是有效的.     

Some sufficient conditions for the E- and MV-optimality of block designs having blocks of unequal size

Summary In this paper we consider experimental situations in which ν treatments are to be tested inb blocks whereb _i blocks containk _i experimental units,i=1,...,p, k ₁<k ₂<...<k _p . The idea of a group divisible (GD) design is extended to that of a group divisible design with unequal block sizes (GDUB design) and then a number of results concerning the E- and MV-optimality of GD designs are generalized to the case of GDUB designs.     

Estimating the covariance matrix and the generalized variance under a symmetric loss

For estimating the power of a generalized variance under a multivariate normal distribution with unknown means, the inadmissibility of the best affine equivariant estimator relative to the symmetric loss is shown, and a class of improved estimators is given. The problem of estimating the covariance matrix is also discussed.     

中国棉花期货市场价格发现功能研究

期货市场和现货市场之间的价格发现功能一直是监管部门和投资者十分关心的问题。本文借助信息共享模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法，对中国棉花期货市场和现货市场的价格关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明：棉花期货价格和现货价格之间存在显著的双向引导关系和长期均衡关系；期货市场和现货市场都扮演价格发现角色，且期货市场在价格发现中处于主导地位。     

窄线SeyfertⅠ型星系

本文将概述窄线SeyfertⅠ型星系 (包括具有类似性质但光度较大的类星体 )的主要观测特征、物理内涵及其理论解释和在活动星系核内部结构上的反映。窄线SeyfertⅠ型星系 (NLS1 ,以后NLS1都认为包括NLSI星系和NLS1类星体 )具有窄的允许线Hβ,它兼有Sy1和Sy2的某些特征。它具有强的FeⅡ光学线和弱的 [OⅢ ]λ5 0 0 7禁线 ,这明显不同于Sy2。在观测相关量的主成分统计分析中表明NLS1是活动星系核第一主向量表现为极端的一类。这包括 :( 1 )HβFWHM取极小 ;( 2 )FeⅡλ45 70 /Hβ 取极大 ;( 3)SⅢ ]λ1 892 /CⅢ ]λ1 90 9取极大 ,亦一定范围内宽线区电子密度取大值 ;( 4 )CⅣλ1 5 4 9线中心蓝移取极大 ;( 5 )高光度NLS1的软X射线光子数谱指数Γx 取极大 ;( 6)X射线相对流量变化方差最大等。基于以上观测结构和相应统计规律 (观测量与HβFWHM的关系 ) ,解释NLS1现象最佳的模型是高相对吸积率L/LEdd模型。NLS1比之典型宽线活动星系核具有较低的中心黑洞质量MBH。进一步 ,还发现这一模型是活动星系核主...     

A viable method for goodness-of-fit test in maximum likelihood fit

A test statistic is proposed to perform the goodness-of-fit test in the unbinned maximum likelihood fit. Without using a detailed expression of the efficiency function, the test statistic is found to be strongly correlated with the maximum likelihood function if the efficiency function varies smoothly. We point out that the correlation coefficient can be estimated by the Monte Carlo technique. With the established method, two examples are given to illustrate the performance of the test statistic.     

An exact minimum variance filter for a class of discrete time systems with random parameter perturbations

An exact, closed-form minimum variance filter is designed for a class of discrete time uncertain systems which allows for both multiplicative and additive noise sources. The multiplicative noise model includes a popular class of models (Cox-Ingersoll-Ross type models) in econometrics. The parameters of the system under consideration which describe the state transition are assumed to be subject to stochastic uncertainties. The problem addressed is the design of a filter that minimizes the trace of the estimation error variance. Sensitivity of the new filter to the size of parameter uncertainty, in terms of the variance of parameter perturbations, is also considered. We refer to the new filter as the ‘perturbed Kalman filter’ (PKF) since it reduces to the traditional (or unperturbed) Kalman filter as the size of stochastic perturbation approaches zero. We also consider a related approximate filtering heuristic for univariate time series and we refer to filter based on this heuristic as approximate perturbed Kalman filter (APKF). We test the performance of our new filters on three simulated numerical examples and compare the results with unperturbed Kalman filter that ignores the uncertainty in the transition equation. Through numerical examples, PKF and APKF are shown to outperform the traditional (or unperturbed) Kalman filter in terms of the size of the estimation error when stochastic uncertainties are present, even when the size of stochastic uncertainty is inaccurately identified.     

The opportunity cost of mean–variance choice under estimation risk

Mean–variance portfolio choice is often criticized as sub-optimal in the more general expected utility framework. It is argued that the expected utility framework takes into consideration higher moments ignored by mean variance analysis. A body of research suggests that mean–variance choice, though arguably sub-optimal, provides very close-to-expected utility maximizing portfolios and their expected utilities, basing its evaluation on in-sample analysis where mean–variance choice is sub-optimal by definition. In order to clarify this existing research, this study provides a framework that allows comparing in-sample and out-of-sample performance of the mean variance portfolios against expected utility maximizing portfolios. Our in-sample results confirm the results of earlier studies. On the other hand, our out-of-sample results show that the expected utility model performs worse. The out-of-sample inferiority of the expected utility model is more pronounced for preferences and constraints under which in-sample mean variance approximations are weakest. We argue that, in addition to its elegance and simplicity, the mean–variance model extracts more information from sample data because it uses the covariance matrix of returns. The expected utility model may reach its optimal solution without using information from the covariance matrix.     

New reformulations for probabilistically constrained quadratic programs

The mixed integer quadratic programming (MIQP) reformulation by Zheng, Sun, Li, and Cui (2012) for probabilistically constrained quadratic programs (PCQP) recently published in EJOR significantly dominates the standard MIQP formulation ( and ) which has been widely adopted in the literature. Stimulated by the dimensionality problem which Zheng et al. (2012) acknowledge themselves for their reformulations, we study further the characteristics of PCQP and develop new MIQP reformulations for PCQP with fewer variables and constraints. The results from numerical tests demonstrate that our reformulations clearly outperform the state-of-the-art MIQP in Zheng et al. (2012).